Milwaukee GOP Debate Highlights the Importance of Independent Republicans
(Washington, D.C., Milwaukee, WI)
As I watched the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee last night, I tried to avoid being swept up in the politics of the now and consider 2024 and the GOP’s long game.
Given that four of the last six presidential elections including both 2016 and 2020 were decided by less than 1% of the vote - just how does the Republican Party get back to winning the White House and Congress decisively to build a persistent and stable majority?
The debate last night highlighted that the GOP’s chief enemy is complacency and a lack of imagination.
The old GOP playbook of tax cuts, a defense buildup, and a conservative take on cultural issues just won’t cut it anymore. Demographic and cultural changes, increased suburbanization, and the technology revolution are all working against the current Republican Party.
A recent analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed normal party margins by a large margin. The ground is shifting.
The GOP needs to pursue a two-track strategy aimed at both its base voters and independent voters. In short, the political math dictates it build a broader right-center coalition to win in 2024 and achieve the long game goal of a persistent and stable majority. If it does not expand its base, the Republican Party will struggle to stay relevant.
A GOP presidential candidate needs more than just registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to win. It must also have a majority of truly independent voters (15% of all voters) that are more suburban, educated, and younger than the general electorate. If you think of independents as passive and uninterested, keep in mind that conservative George Will is now an independent.
The Mission of the Independent Republican
This 15% bloc or so of true independents represent a keystone bloc of potential “Independent Republicans”. This will be the “electing wing” of the GOP in key swing states like Wisconsin in 2024 and beyond.
The mission of the Independent Republican is to persuade and mobilize this crucial independent bloc to vote Republican. Our outreach will message the sharp contrast between the Biden/Harris record of reckless spending, debt, and overseas adventures with a GOP approach that is more pragmatic, and competent.
While the GOP needs to push back on the left’s extremist cultural agenda, its primary focus must be on America’s economic, financial, and national security. The hollowing out of our industrial base as well as both the Iraq and Ukraine fiascos could and should have been avoided. GOP leaders need the courage to think independently and confront America’s soaring federal deficits and debt as well as the challenging US-China rivalry.
We need to double down on growing and expanding the GOP right-center coalition in both primary and general elections by persuading and mobilizing independents to join the GOP as independent Republicans. This requires crafting a more independent agenda such as renewing the American brand of dynamic stability, reforming the US Government from entitlements to the Pentagon, and rebuilding America’s industrial base and supply chains.
Meanwhile, President Biden’s team is already working on following its 2020 and 2022 blueprint to capture a majority of this growing independent bloc of swing voters to win in 2024. President Biden won about 60% of college-educated voters in 2020 helping him run up the score in affluent suburbs and putting him over the top in pivotal states. Overall, 41% of people who cast ballots in 2020 were college graduates and about 50% of voters are suburban voters, according to census estimates. Unfortunately, in the suburbs, the GOP has seen steadily declining margins.
Who are Independent Republicans?
The Independent Republican’s efforts to persuade and mobilize independent voters will be centered on the suburbs, while encouraging early voting and voting my mail. We will draw a sharp contrast with the Biden-Harris ticket while renewing the GOP’s brand, agenda, messaging, and tone. Our messaging and voter mobilization efforts will be grounded in rigorous polling analysis of voting and demographic and voting data provided by Data Trust to develop a data-driven model.
In short, a coalition of Republicans + Independent Republicans = Victory.
Independent Republicans are a grab bag of voters seeking more law and order, more economic, financial, and national security, and a more practical foreign policy.
Fiscal Conservatives frustrated with soaring federal spending. A budget deficit of $1.6 trillion for the just first 10 months of the fiscal 2023 - raising risk and slowing investment and growth.
Republicans-in Exile put off by candidates overheated rhetoric and extreme positions
Double Doubters weary and wary of both party’s leading contenders
Conservative Internationalists that want restraint and competence in foreign affairs to keep America safe and prosperous.
Reformers that want Congress to stop kicking the can down the road and reform the Pentagon, Social Security, and expand school choice.
How Independent Voters are Breaking
In 2016, Donald Trump did well with independents, but in 2020, independents broke sharply against then President Trump according to a National Election exit poll for ABC, CBS, CNN, and NBC.
In 2020, Trump won 94% of registered Republican voters but just 40% of overall independent voters and only 20% of true independents.
Even 25% of base primary GOP voters in a recent NYT/Siena poll said they will not consider voting for Trump in the November 2024 election. In short, Trump’s base GOP support is strong but beyond this, his appeal seems limited.
Wisconsin is the ideal state to focus our resources on through November 2024 and beyond since it is a key swing state, and whoever wins Wisconsin will likely win the White House. In Wisconsin, Trump won in 2016 by only 22,748 votes and Biden won in 2020 by only 20,682 votes. Wisconsin also has open primaries and a higher-than-normal proportion of independent voters.
Here is today’s debate poll question.
Carl Delfeld is an equity and Asia analyst, the founder of the Independent Republican, author of Power Rivals: America and China’s Superpower Struggle, and editor of How to Raise a Packer Fan: Even in Denver or Boston.
Interesting article 👍