The GOP Can Win Independents and Beat Dems
As we move beyond the painful midterm election GOP debacle, one thing should be clear.
A decisive Republican victory in 2024 means going well beyond the party’s base to garner a clear majority of independent voters - those not registered as either Republicans or Democrats. This will require both better candidates as well as a more ambitious strategy and agenda.
What I refer to as “Independent Republicans” are independents persuadable to vote for Republican candidates. By nature, they’re independent thinkers, do not kowtow to GOP kingmakers, yearn for a sense of clear direction, and are not afraid to buck the establishment line.
Why are independent voters so important?
First, there are a lot of them. According to recent Gallup polling, 33% of voters nationwide identified as Republicans, 29% as Democrats and 35% as independents. Also, keep in mind that 19 states have open presidential primaries whereby independents can choose to participate in either the Republican or Democratic primary.
The situation is becoming more fluid because sharper and more extreme party lines are changing and shifting this significant independent voting base that thinks independently, tends to be younger, and does not blindly follow party leaders.
The GOP did well last week in getting out its base voters but it lost voters who identify as independents.
According to the national media exit poll, of the 31% of voters who identify as independent, 49% voted Democrat and 47% Republican. In the AP VoteCast survey, independents favored Democrats by four points.
This is not even close to what Democrats did to Republicans in the last midterm election in 2018. Then, according to CNN polling, 54% of independents voted Democrat and only 42% voted Republican. (Democrats added 40 House seats.)
My home state of Wisconsin is a good example of what mattered this year. While Senator Ron Johnson eked out a narrow win after winning the independent vote 50% to 48%, Governor Tony Evers beat back his Republican challenger by winning independents 52% to 46%.
While independent Republicans reject the progressive left agenda with contempt, they can be uncomfortable with some of the views of the hard right.
Rather than being trapped as extremist on social issues, the GOP message should be brief: pro-life with exceptions, pro 2nd amendment within reason.
Independent Republicans can be more conservative than GOP party leaders on key issues like federal spending, debt, and foreign policy. They are also fed up with Congress not confronting problems and instead just kicking the can down the road.
The GOP must also capture the high ground of the the growing economic anxiety regarding the tense superpower rivalry between China and the United States.
Since 2000, China has gone from representing 3% of the global economy to 17% while America has gone from 28% to 23%. The American brand of a dynamic economy, political stability, and military strength are under pressure while Beijing views America as divided, distracted, and in relative decline.
To keep America as the world’s leading power, the Republican Party should focus on an agenda that unites most Americans - greater economic, financial, and national security. This means ending reckless federal government spending and debt while executing a more conservative, pragmatic foreign policy.
The following agenda received a 71% approval rating from a recent Independent Republican survey of 12,100 members.
standing up to China with a focus on freedom of navigation and forward deterrence in the Asia-Pacific together with skillful diplomacy to avoid war
backing an optimistic private investment-led economic growth rather than the Democrat’s federal-debt-driven growth strategy
rebuilding America’s industrial capacity from the ground up through tax incentives and international investment
standing on the side of parents and common sense in education with transparency, accountability, and choice for families. Cutting school bureaucracies, going back to basics, and taking politics out of education
securing the border while rejecting identity politics and any discrimination based on race or ethnicity
protecting the environment without wrecking the economy and expanding zero-emission, safer, modular nuclear energy to achieve energy independence
increasing defense spending with multi-year budgets through a more agile Pentagon focused on Asia while allies share more defense costs
Independents are also open to new ideas such as an allocation to US stocks in the Social Security Trust Fund, FDA reform to increase innovation and lower the cost of new drugs, and broadening stock ownership through Advance Roth IRAs.
All this will spark an enduring private investment-led economic boom leading to lasting, generational change and signal to markets, allies, and adversaries alike that the American superpower brand of dynamic stability in this age of US-China rivalry is stronger than ever.
Going forward, the GOP should also follow a more ambitious strategy of going after both its base and independent voters in both primaries and the general election. We need to work hard to fight for and persuade every independent voter to join the grand big-tent GOP coalition. This is the mission of the Independent Republican organization.
This will give it a chance to build a durable, governing majority in 2024 and the rest of this decade.
Carl T. Delfeld is a senior fellow at the Hay Seward Center for Economic Security and is the publisher of the Independent Republican. His latest book is Power Rivals: America and China’s Superpower Struggle.
