From Sandy Cay to the Silk Curtain
Subi Reef, Sandy Cay, and Diego Garcia may not ring a bell with most Americans but they certainly should as the US-China plays out in the Indo-Pacific.
They are roiling the relations of China and the Philippines as they stake rival claims to a spot of land of the West Philippine Sea or South China Sea - in the midst of one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
In recent days, both countries have planted their national flags on Sandy Cay, a collection of sandbars close to two key military outposts controlled by Beijing and Manila.
Sandy Cay has geopolitical significance because parts of it remain above water even at high tide, entitling it to 12 nautical miles of territorial sea under international maritime law.
The permanent occupation of Sandy Cay by either the Philippines or China will reverberate because it is 12 miles of Sandy Cay is Subi Reef, an artificial island that is one of China’s most important military outposts in the disputed waterway.
China’s claims without merit but backed by power much of the South China and this dispute threatens to escalate since the Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally.
This is underscored by the U.S. and Philippines are now conducting joint military drills - Balikatan, or “shoulder-to-shoulder” in Tagalog - that include some 9,000 American troops and 5,000 personnel from the Philippines, along with smaller contingents from Australia and Japan.
Beijing sailed one of its aircraft carriers near the Batanes Islands in the Luzon Strait, the waterway between Taiwan and the Philippines, where U.S. and Philippine personnel are also conducting drills.
The Sandy Cay standoff signals China’s increased efforts to assert its claims to the South China Sea as it seeks to push against American power and restrict freedom of navigation.
China seeks a more flexible sphere of authoritarianism with Beijing at the center of a tributary system.
This “Silk Curtain” is markedly different and even more challenging for America and its allies than the cold war Iron Curtain ever was for three reasons.
First, it is flexible, constantly moving to and fro as the winds of events and alliances shift.
Second, it is permeable as cyber attacks, trade, investment, and shipping move through it despite the risks.
Third, it is more flammable with flash points such as Taiwan all along the Silk Curtain from North Korea to the South China Sea.
How do you handle a low-altitude, Chinese hypersonic vehicle moving at five times the speed of sound and six times faster than a Tomahawk missile?
In short, America is struggling to stay the sole superpower, China is struggling to become one, and Russia is trying to claw back some influence on the world stage.
This decade is crucial because it represents China’s window of opportunity before over leveraged real estate and state-owned enterprises, plus demographic headwinds limit its options.
America faces a window of vulnerability due to its political instability, feckless foreign policy, and the transfer of much of its manufacturing base to Asia.