Doves, Hawks, and the Ukraine Endgame

It would be naïve to believe that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could take place as the conflict swings back and forth each day but the time is fast approaching and fortune favors the prepared.

While Ukraine will have the final say and should negotiate from a position of strength, the United States and Europe have much at stake and each country has its own political and economic calculus.  

This will require some far-sighted statesmanship on the part of Ukraine together with America and the European Community standing in steadfast support.

In America, the isolationist wing of the Republican Party, the Ukraine doves, need to be pushed back and the same goes for other end of the spectrum, the Ukraine hawks, that seem amenable to a prolonged, costly, conflict with no realistic outcome.

As usual, the right approach is conservative internationalist. Denying Russia any benefits for its reckless and lawless behavior while making sure that Ukraine’s security and future is enhanced by the endgame. If more American and NATO firepower, or the threat of it, is necessary to reach this objective, I’m all for it.

In terms of timing, there are several reasons to move sometime over the next few months to begin negotiations backed by a united front and aggressive military tactics.

First, if Russia is not responsive or does not demonstrate good faith in negotiations, it strengthens the case for further sustained Ukrainian military action.

Second, while European and American support of Ukraine is strong, the longer the conflict continues, so does the risk of support wavering as the world faces increasing economic challenges.

Third, the cost of the war is increasing every day including severe damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure and economy plus the resources to care for six million refugees. Of course the economic costs for Russia are also escalating giving it an incentive to come to the table. A prolonged stalemate will be costly for Ukraine and Russia as well as for Europe and America.

Fourth, it is a paradox that even if Ukraine achieves its ultimate goal of pushing Russia entirely out of its borders, including Crimea, the risks of nuclear escalation elevate considerably. The issue of border security remains. The issue of a large, hostile state with nuclear weapons on Ukraine’s border remains. 

While the United States should maintain its current support of NATO, European members need to sharply increase their hard asset contributions and financial support of Ukraine. The recent $40 billion for Ukraine approved by the U.S. Congress, roughly three times the support thus far of the European Union, is unlikely to be followed by another of this size.

The backdrop to all of this is the US-China rivalry and America’s need for stability and security on both sides of Eurasia. From a Chinese perspective, the Ukrainian conflict has complicated its goal of dominating Eurasia, turned its de facto alliance with Russia into a potential liability while increasing its own economic instability at a time of slowing economic growth. For America, pushing back Russia and reaching a favorable settlement soon not only sends a clear message to China, it frees up limited American and ally resources to deter China in the Pacific.

The European Community, and Germany in particular, have considerable leverage over China if they have the will to use it since China represents Europe’s largest trading partner. China can repair some of the damage to their already fading brand by bringing Russia to the negotiating table. America also needs the wisdom to continue to support Ukraine while playing its hand carefully and always keeping in mind the national interest. 

Japan can also pressure China, as it is the source of almost 25% of Japan’s imports. Japan has demonstrated once again why it remains America’s most important ally in Asia and the world. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida harshly criticized the “brutal and inhumane acts” carried out by Russia and backed this up with aid to Ukraine and imposing economic penalties and sanctions including freezing the assets of two of Russia’s largest banks. This demonstrates once again why Japan remains America’s most important ally in Asia and the world

What might be on the table in Ukraine-Russian negotiations?

It begins with Russia moving back to the line of February 23, sanctions released after Russian troops are withdrawn far from the border, Finland’s membership in NATO, border buffer zones, Ukraine’s membership in the European Community, and a sizable rebuilding fund for Ukraine with the United States contributing 25%, the European Community, 50%, and the rest of the world, 25%.

One realistic option is that Ukraine could renounce joining NATO and become a non-nuclear, non-aligned, neutral country in return for receiving border security guarantees from its Western supporters.

While historians prefer to analyze how and why wars begin, how wars end is equally important and never easy.  Ukraine doves, hawks, and those in between need the wisdom and courage to heed Roman statesman Cicero’s advice that sometimes “an unjust peace is better than a just war.”

Finally, I understand why some may wonder why Ukraine is even a concern of America. Why should we care whether Ukraine stays an independent democratic country or becomes a tributary of Russia? My answer goes back to the end of a speech that John F. Kennedy was about to deliver in Dallas that fateful last day of his life.

We in this country, in this generation, are—by destiny rather than choice—the watchmen on the walls of world freedom. We ask, therefore, that we may be worthy of our power and responsibility, that we may exercise our strength with wisdom and restraint, and that we may achieve in our time and for all time the ancient vision of “peace on earth, good will toward men.” That must always be our goal, and the righteousness of our cause must always underlie our strength. For as was written long ago: “except the Lord keep the city, the watchman waketh but in vain.”

Carl Delfeld is a senior fellow at the Hay Seward Center for Economic Security, and the publisher of the Independent Republican. His most recent book is Power Rivals: America and China’s Superpower Struggle